GLOUCESTER'S play-off ambitions are on the line against London Irish today, believes Nigel Davies.
All the statistics point to a routine Gloucester victory at Kingsholm (kick-off 3pm) – but boss Davies thinks otherwise.
The Cherry and Whites already boast three victories over Irish this term, and today the two teams meet for their third clash in five weeks, this time in Premiership action.
Gloucester blasted six tries past the Exiles in their 47-3 Amlin Challenge Cup Kingsholm victory on December 15, raising hopes Davies' men can record their first league bonus-point win of the season today.
Irish have only won once since October, at home to Sale on November 11, and Brian Smith's side have not scored a Premiership try for 275 minutes.
The Reading-based outfit have not won at Kingsholm since 2006 and Gloucester are on a nine-game winning streak at home.
Victory will secure both league and European doubles over Irish for Gloucester, but rugby director Davies is taking nothing for granted – the former Wales centre believes only a win will keep his side's play-off drive on track.
Davies explained: "It's not that straightforward at all, you've got to look at each game on its own merit.
"And this game in particular, just past the midway point of the season, if we want to stay in the top four, we have to win it.
"It's vital for our ambitions for the season overall, because you've got to win your home games, it's as simple as that.
"For Irish, they are down the bottom of the table, and they want to put some points between themselves and the other teams down there.
"So for them they need to win this game, their opportunities to push up the table are decreasing all the time.
"Each game has a different feel to it, and this one is huge.
"You can look down at the games remaining and each one has a little bit more significance in terms of what we're trying to achieve.
"It's a very important game for us, and very important for them too, so it should be a cracking match."
Irish sit 11th out of 12 in the league table and must now battle on without the services of departed defence coach Shaun Edwards, who resigned his post this week to concentrate on his duties with Wales.
Despite their obvious troubles though, Davies has still told his Gloucester side to be wary of their attack-minded backline.
Davies continued: "They are very dangerous and unpredictable, and they also have that quality to hurt teams.
"So you have to be very mindful of that and respect that.
"We have to be very careful not to be complacent in terms of what to expect from them – not because of their form but because of how frequently we've played them recently.
"We've done a lot of work this week analysing them again, and we're pretty comfortable that we've got a game that if we put into place and we're accurate enough it will serve us well.
"But they are a very dangerous team, and if you're loose and you give them half-chances, they will take them.
"They will keep probing for opportunities, trying to get their quality players into the game.
"And they do have high-quality players who can change the game in an instant.
"When you play against a team like that you have to be 100 per cent focused, and we will be.
"We know it's very important in terms of our ambitions for the season, and so it's very important to perform well.
"We cannot afford complacency, we'll treat them with complete respect, and if we do that then hopefully we'll play accurate, committed rugby.
"We cannot afford to look back on the previous encounters and take anything from them.
"I feel as though we're moving forward pretty well generally, but this is another big test that will give us a clearer picture again of where we are.
"Our home games are vital, and this one is exactly that.
"For us to be in the hunt at the end of the season, these are the games that we need to be winning."
